I’ve been twittering away for nearly a month now, and really enjoying it for the sense of tight community it gives. Even when I was off work with the flu for a week and only managed sad whiny tweets.
One odd side effect is that it’s dragged me back to Facebook. I’d more-or-less abandoned Facebook, until I wired my Twitter feed in to Facebook updates. All of a sudden people who are on Facebook – that I’ve not been in touch with for ages – start responding to me there.
My colleague and noted Twitter enthusiast Martin is worried about Twitter’s ongoing technical issues, which are annoying, and sensibly points out:
there’s nothing really in the design of Twitter over Jaiku, Friendfeed, Pownce, etc that makes me use it – it’s just that it’s where my network is, and I can’t migrate without them. But if they started to go, the infamous tipping point might be reached very quickly.
Andrew Chen observed that Metcalfe’s Law – that the value of a network grows with the square of the number of nodes – can work against you. He posits a reverse law – Eflactem’s Law,
As you lose users, the value of your network is decreases exponentially (doh!)
Chen has Facebook in his sights. And I think he’s right, especially given Facebook’s determination to keep the walled garden thing going – in a networked world, that’s only ever going to work as a short or medium term strategy, and ‘short or medium term’ in Internet years can be not very long at all. But I think Twitter is far more vulnerable.
The big danger – and big win – for Twitter is that their userbase is small (compared to, say, Facebook or MySpace) but highly skewed towards techie opinion-formers. Those are precisely the sort of people who will find migrating to a new service very little hassle.
On the other hand, I think Twitter is likely to be robust over small, short outages compared to a lot of online services. The great thing (for my money) about Twitter versus one great big IM clusterparty or IRC (does anybody use IRC these days?) is that you feel quite safe ignoring it
for a while if you want to do something else. So if you feel like Tweeting, but can’t, it’s no big deal to get on with Actual Work instead.
It’s all a bit fluid, and who knows what will happen? As Martin concludes, “that’s the fun of it – we get to see the new paradigms being created”.